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德鲁里:印度煤炭进口推动巴拿马型船运价上涨

来源:simic 日期:2019-08-08

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来源:World Maritime News 2019-08-07
翻译:国际海事信息网 王雅媛 张运鸿
 
       海事信息咨询公司德鲁里(Drewry)指出,巴拿马型船舶(Panamax)运价在2019年大幅飙升,这主要归因于印度在煤炭进口上的稳定需求。
 
       德鲁里首席干散货研究分析师Rahul Sharan称,这种情况可能会持续下去。他补充称,印度政府计划大举投资基础设施,这将持续加强国内煤炭需求。
 
       其他推动煤炭稳定进口的因素包括印度对电力的需求持续增加。 
 
       相关信息显示,印度非炼焦煤的主要消费方是发电厂和水泥工业,炼焦煤的主要消费方是钢铁工业。印度财政部长在2019年7月5日的预算演讲中提出,未来5年,印度每年在基础设施方面的投资将达到2850亿美元,比过去增加150%以上。
 
       德鲁里表示,印度政府为高速公路部门提供了有史以来最高的120亿美元预算支持。尽管此前印度的此类计划因缺乏资金未能实现,但该咨询公司表示,由于政府力争调动其它融资资源,预计近期的计划有望得到实施。
 
       据称,印度的基础设施建设计划将推动钢铁、水泥和电力需求的大幅飙升。水泥需求的激增,已导致今年对非炼焦煤的进口产生了需求。印度的水泥产量在2018-2019财政年度里增长到了3.37亿吨以上,比上一财政年增长了13%以上。
 
       然而,国内煤炭产量一直在以非常缓慢的速度增长,使得电力公司不得不依赖煤炭进口。例如,到2019年5月,印度国内煤炭产量增加了5%,但进口激增了29%。
 
       考虑到所有这些因素,德鲁里指出,由于印度国内煤炭生产商无法满足国内需求,未来几个季度的煤炭进口将持续走高。
 
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Drewry: Indian Coal Imports Boost Panamax Rates
 
Panamax rates have seen a significant surge in 2019, maritime research consultancy Drewry noted, pointing out that this could largely be attributed to the recent firmness in India’s coal imports.
 
This situation is likely here to stay, according to Drewry’s lead dry bulk research analyst Rahul Sharan who added that the Indian government’s plan to invest heavily in infrastructure will underpin domestic coal demand.
 
Other factors contributing to the stability of coal imports include an increasing demand for electricity in India.
 
As pointed out, major consumers of non-coking coal in India are power plants and cement industry, while that for coking coal is the steel industry. The Indian finance minister, in her budget speech on July 5, 2019, proposed to invest USD 285 billion annually over the next five years on infrastructure – a surge of more than 150% compared with the past investment.
 
According to Drewry, the government has allocated the highest-ever budgetary support of USD 12 billion to the highways sector. While such plans in India have failed to materialize because of a lack of funds in the past, the consultancy said the recent initiative was expected to be implemented as the government seeks to mobilise alternative financing resources.
 
Indian infrastructure initiatives would result in a massive surge in demand for steel, cement and power, it was said. The spurt in demand for cement has already generated requirements for non-coking coal imports this year. India’s cement production has increased to more than 337 million tonnes in FY 2018-19, a rise of more than 13% from the previous financial year.
 
However, domestic coal production has been increasing at a very slow pace, leaving power companies to depend on coal imports. For instance, domestic coal production increased 5% until May 2019, but imports surged 29%.
 
Taking all this into account, Drewry pointed out that the inability of domestic coal producers to match domestic demand will keep imports high over the next few quarters.
 
 
 
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