SIMIC

"Factories in China are largely back online and stores that closed here in the US are starting to reopen, but volume is far lower than what we would see in a 'normal' year," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold.

"Shoppers will come back and there is still a need for essential items, but the economic recovery will be gradual and retailers will adjust the amount of merchandise they import to meet demand."

"Much will depend on consumers' willingness to return to spending," Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. "Second-quarter economic growth will be significantly worse than the previous quarter, but we continue to expect recovery to come in the second half of the year, especially the fourth quarter and into 2021. This is based on the big and somewhat tenuous assumption that there is no second wave of the virus."

US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.37 million TEU in March, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was the lowest volume since 1.34 million TEU in March 2016, down 9.1 per cent from this February and down 14.8 per cent year on year.

April was estimated at 1.51 million TEU, down 13.4 per cent year on year. May is forecast at 1.47 million TEU, down 20.4 per cent from last year; June at 1.46 million TEU, down 18.6 per cent; July at 1.58 million TEU, down 19.3 per cent; August at 1.73 million TEU, down 12 per cent, and September at 1.7 million TEU, down 9.3 per cent.

Before the coronavirus began to have an effect on imports, February through May had been forecast at a total of 6.9 million TEU but is now expected to total 5.87 million TEU, a drop of 14.9 per cent.

The first half of 2020 is forecast to total 9.15 million TEU, down 13 per cent from the same period last year. Before the extent of the pandemic was known, the first half of the year was forecast at 10.47 million TEU.

Imports during 2019 totaled 21.6 million TEU, a 0.8 per cent decrease from 2018 amid the trade war with China but still the second highest year on record.