SIMIC

With the European Union poised to introduce a ban on Russian oil in the coming months, that situation could change significantly. But so far, data show that while commerce with Russia has been reduced in many cases, it has yet to be crippled.

Volumes of crude and oil products shipped out of Russian ports, for example, climbed to 25 million tonnes in April, data from the shipping tracker Refinitiv showed, up from 24 million tonnes in December, January, February and March, and mostly above the levels of the last two years.

Jim Mitchell, the head of oil research for the Americas at Refinitiv, said that Russia's outgoing shipments in April had been buoyed by the global economic recovery from the pandemic, and that they did not yet reflect the impact of sanctions and other restrictions on Russia issued after its invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Crude oil typically trades 45 to 60 days ahead of delivery, he said, meaning that changes to behaviour following the Russian invasion were still working their way through the system.

"The volume has been slow to decline, because these were contracts that have already been set," Mr Mitchell said. Defaulting on such contracts is "a nightmare for both sides," he said, adding, "which means that even in the current environment nobody really wants to breach a contract."

Russia has stopped publishing data on its imports and exports since western governments united to announce their array of sanctions and other restrictions. Exports of oil or gas that leave Russia through pipelines can also be difficult for outside firms to verify.