SIMIC

Sea-Intelligence has run the numbers on supply and demand during the pandemic, and its conclusions add to the growing consensus that volumes are slipping, and it is only supply chain chaos such as port congestion that is helping prop up rates.

Global demand was consistently at a level 10 per cent higher than capacity, from November 2020 to January 2022, according to Sea-Intelligence, reports Singapore's Splash 247.

However, that the gap has been narrowing, and the most recent data from June, shows a gap down to 2 per cent versus the pre-pandemic levels.

"All in all, what the data shows is that the extreme spikes in freight rates in 2021 were indeed driven by a situation where demand suddenly exceeded capacity at a global level - but it can also be clearly seen that this was an effect primarily driven by the unavailability of capacity," Sea-Intelligence argued in its latest weekly report.

The recent trend towards normalisation has in turn also been primarily driven by gradual improvements in schedule reliability and vessel delays, Sea-Intelligence suggested, going on to predict that the supply/demand balance will continue to decline, and freight rates will be under increasing downwards pressure.

"Spot freight rates continue to roll over amid absent peak season demand," a new container shipping report from HSBC stated, noting how in Q3 so far, seasonally a strong quarter, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) has declined 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter on average while the China Containerised Freight Index.(CCFI) is up just 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

In its market update for August, CH Robinson, a freight forwarder, cautioned that appetite for imports was decreasing due to inflation and inventory build-up in the US and Europe even as congestion persists and labour strikes in Europe disrupt port productivity.

Drewry's composite World Container Index decreased by 3 per cent to US$6,223.82 per FEU last week. It stands 35 per cent lower than the same week in 2021, but remains 71 per cent higher than the five-year average of $3,631.

However, high contract rates have more than recompensed for a falling spot market, with liners widely forecast to register another record year of earnings.