SIMIC

THE top ten US container ports had their biggest monthly decline on record in February, reflecting the dramatic boom-to-bust cycle caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to liner industry veteran John McCown in his latest US ports report.
Inbound container volumes to the US declined a "staggering" 28 per cent last month, a "major deterioration" compared to January's 17 per cent drop and the fifth straight month of double-digit percentage declines, reports gCaptain, Ventura, California.
"The tough comparisons to what were unprecedented year-over-year increases last year is now producing unprecedented year-over-year decreases and this will continue for a few months at least," Mr McCown said in his report.
Mr McCown points out that February's volumes are equivalent to a negative 1.4 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), or average growth rate over time, compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2019 and only a positive 1 per cent CAGR going back to 2017 before any impacts from former President Trump's trade war tariffs on China.
"Both rates are well below the 3.8 per cent ten-year CAGR in annual inbound loads from 2010 to 2020 that excludes the pandemic induced gains," he said.
Once again East and Gulf Coast ports outperformed West Coast ports in terms of percentage change in February - a 21-month streak - as ongoing West Coast port labour negotiations continue to contribute to inbound volumes shifting eastward, according Mr McCown.
There was some good news for exporters in February as outbound volumes increased 4.6 per cent on the heels of double-digit gains in January and December. "Outbound volume growth actually outpaced inbound volume growth for the seventh straight month after 26 months of underperformance," McCown's report said.
Mr McCown concludes his report by addressing "misinformation" related to pricing levels and trends in container shipping and maritime supply chains. He explicitly points to the New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), which he says provides "flawed barometer" due in part to its use of spot indices which don't accurately depict the container shipping industry.