SIMIC

IN a late November web presentation as part of the platform's Logistics Rewired series, an in-depth analysis of supply/demand, carrier economics, and market dynamics was provided, reports UK's Maritime Seatrade News.

Flexport senior VP Anders Schulze initiated the market overview by noting that the concluding year, 2023, has been characterized by excess supply, in contrast to the demand surges induced by the Covid crisis.



"The 2024 market is expected to look similar to 2023 as capacity continues to outstrip demand by 15 to 25 per cent," said Schulze, looking at forecasted vessel deliveries, pointed to an estimated "addition of 13 per cent to the fleet in 2024," which he noted is higher than historical averages.



Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen parsed Mr Schulze's numbers slightly, commenting that "slippage" of new building deliveries would bring fleet additions to around eight to ten per cent, which, he said, "is not an extreme amount of capacity growth- on top of demand." Mr Jensen also said that he anticipated that: "Scrapping will pick up, but it's not going to save the day."



Against the backdrop of the capacity build, cargo interests' inventories have normalized, and rates have moved down to pre-Covid crisis levels.



Mr Jensen, talking about the carriers in the Pacific trades, said: "It is exceedingly likely, with no exceptions, that all the carriers will be loss-making in Q4, 2023."