SIMIC

US RETAILERS have raised their forecast for import growth during the first half of 2024 despite volatility in the Red Sea that continues to disrupt shipping through the Suez Canal, reports New York's Journal of Commerce.

"Only about 12 per cent of US-bound cargo comes through the Suez Canal but the situation in the Red Sea is bringing volatility and uncertainty that are being felt around the globe," said National Retail Federation vice president Jonathan Gold in his monthly Global Port Tracker report.



The report forecasts that US imports in February will increase 20.4 per cent over February 2023, up from the 13.8 per cent increase predicted in last month's report.



The tracker also upgraded the year-on-year gains for March (up 5.5 per cent vs. 4.7 per cent last month), April (up 2.6 per cent vs 0.2 per cent) and May (up 0.3 per cent vs. a decline of 0.8 per cent).



Retailers forecast imports six months out, with port tracker calling for a 5.5 per cent year-on-year increase for June imports. That would bring the GPT projection for imports during the first half of 2024 to a gain of 5.3 per cent over H1 2023.



US imports for the full calendar year of 2023 declined 12.8 per cent from 2022.



Port tracker's updated forecast for 2024 indicates that consumer demand is projected to increase in the coming year, and notes that carriers are utilising their excess capacity to mitigate the impact of the Red Sea diversions to maintain a consistent flow of cargo.