SIMIC

NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said: "We're not going to see the dramatic growth in imports we saw this time last year, but the fact that volumes aren't falling is a clear sign of continued consumer demand.

"The slowdown in cargo growth will be welcome as the supply chain continues to try to adapt to these elevated volumes. Unfortunately, many experts expect ongoing disruptions throughout 2022 for a variety of reasons."

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said congestion remains on both coasts and the Port of Los Angeles alone has around 40 ships waiting to dock. As more ships arrive each day and delays mean some cargo won't get unloaded until the following month, shifts in import patterns could be difficult to follow for the next few months.

"With Lunar New Year factory closings in Asia this month and the consequent drop in export production, North American terminals will have an opportunity to reduce existing congestion," Mr Hackett said.

"Nonetheless, backups cannot be erased quickly as long as terminals continue to face a lack of space brought on by the supply chain's inability to efficiently transfer cargo out of the terminals to its end destinations. A shortage of equipment, worker availability and storage space at distribution centres and warehouses across the country remains problematic, as does the export of empty containers back to Asia."

US ports covered by Global Port Tracker are expected to handle 13 million TEU during the first half of 2022, up 1.5 per cent over the 12.8 million TEU handled during the same period in 2021. By contrast, the first half of 2021 saw a record 35.7 per cent increase over the unusually slow first six months of 2020, when many Asian factories and US stores were shut down because of the pandemic.

The ports handled 2.09 million TEU in December 2021, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 1.2 per cent from November and down 1 per cent year over year. Imports for all of 2021 totalled 25.8 million TEU, a 17.4 per cent increase over 2020's record high of 22 million TEU that was set despite the pandemic.

Ports have not yet reported January numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.15 million TEU, up 4.4 per cent year over year. February is forecast at 2.04 million TEU, up 8.7 per cent; March at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.7 per cent; April at 2.19 million TEU, up 2 per cent; May at 2.27 million TEU, down 2.6 per cent, and June at 2.26 million TEU, up 5.2 per cent.