SIMIC

Containership newbuild capacity is down to just 9.4 per cent of capacity. "For the first time in more than 20 years, the global newbuilding pipeline fell below the 10 per cent threshold," it said.

Containership orderbook is down to 2.21 million TEU. This contrasts to a high of around seven million TEU in 2008. In that year, orderbook capacity was more than 60 per cent of on-the-water capacity.

Of ships on order, virtually all are in the 10,000-plus TEU category or the 3,999-TEU-or-less category. There are effectively no orders in the midsized 4,000-9,999 TEU category.

A prolonged virus-driven depression could cut cargo demand as much or more than vessel capacity. This would erase owners' future rate-negotiation advantage.

Another risk is decarbonisation. If the world's governments are serious about forcing greenhouse gas cuts, will fossil-fuel consumption also be cut? And if so, wouldn't this reduce future demand for tankers, bulkers and gas carriers?

Cleaner post-lockdown skies and waters will drive momentum for environmentalism and greenhouse gas regulation, said FreightWaves.