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  根据德路里最新发布的《全球集装箱码头运营商年度回顾与预测》报告分析，在后疫情时代，全球集装箱航运贸易复苏提振了全球码头吞吐能力的发展。全球码头运营商提高了对风险相对较高的新建港口项目的青睐，以追求长期增长，这也佐证了德路里的观点。

全球集装箱港口吞吐能力预计将以每年2.4%的速度增长，到2026年达到13.8亿TEU。然而，不断恶化的经济和地缘政治局势导致对货物需求前景有所下调，因此，2025年集装箱港口利用率预计将下降至70%，而去年的预测值为75%。

尽管大多数（约70%）运营商的投资计划仍集中在现有码头上，但新建码头项目的数量明显增加——到2026年，CMA Terminals、Hutchison和TIL的新建港口吞吐能力预计都将增加400万TEU甚至更多。

本报告的作者、德路里港口和码头高级分析师Eleanor Hadland认为“码头运营商对新建码头项目兴趣重燃，表明市场对未来前景的信心有所增强。而对于CMA Terminals和TIL这类运营商，可以从CMA CGM和MSC兜底一定数量的集装箱，这会使得他们比起非承运人附属的运营商更具优势。”

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图1：德路里全球港口吞吐能力预测更新

资料来源：德路里《全球集装箱码头运营商年度回顾与预测2022/23》

2021年全球供应链拥堵导致货物滞留港口时间增加，产生了额外的仓储费用，使码头运营商的收入在吞吐量恢复所带来增长水平上进一步提升。

尽管港口生产效率普遍下降，但港口拥堵似乎并没有对其财务业绩产生不利影响。到目前为止，部分收入增长（例如超时收费、仓储费）足以抵消拥堵带来的额外运营成本。运营商还表示，为应对新冠疫情而实施的持续成本控制措施对利润率产生了积极影响。

Hadland补充道：“一旦全球供应链拥堵的情况得到缓解，随着港口滞留时间恢复到疫情前的水平，港口收入回落的风险就会增加。”

2021年，运营商的资金支出反弹，同比增长31%，但现在面临着装卸设备交货期延长和成本迅速上升的双重挑战。德路里研究还发现，自2020年以来，运营商筹资步伐已经放缓，利率上升给市场发展带来了阻力。但总体而言，良好的码头运营商财务业绩已转化为稳健的资产负债表。剔除中远港口和ICTSI后，行业的净债务下降，使得净资产负债率也下降了8.5个百分点至54.7%。

2021年，德路里定义的全球码头运营商的公司数量从21家下降到20家，其中K Line因在2020年第四季度出售了其美国业务后，不再算作“全球码头运营商”。而这20家公司，权益吞吐量（即按股权调整后的吞吐量）增长为7.0%，略高于2021增长6.8%的记录。这些头部运营商处理了超过48%的全球港口吞吐量（按股权调整），与2020年相比基本保持稳定。

报告中，APM Terminals权益吞吐量增长量最大，同比增长470万TEU（10.3%）。

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图2：2021年头部全球码头运营商权益吞吐量排名

资料来源：德路里《全球集装箱码头运营商年度回顾与预测2022/23》

Widespread container shipping trade recovery in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic has boosted the global terminal capacity outlook, supported by global terminal operators’ (GTOs) increased appetite for higher-risk greenfield projects to deliver long-term growth, according to Drewry’s latest Global Container Terminal Operators Annual Review and Forecast report.

Global container port capacity is projected to increase by an average annual rate of 2.4% to reach 1.38 billion teu by 2026. However, the worsening economic and geopolitical situation has led to a downgrading of the cargo demand outlook, and as a result container port utilisation is now projected to moderate to 70% in 2025 compared to last year’s projection of 75%.

While the majority (70%) of GTO investment plans remain focussed on existing assets, there has been a notable increase in the number of greenfield projects – with CMA Terminals, Hutchison and TIL all expected to add 4 mteu or additional greenfield capacity by 2026.

Eleanor Hadland, author of the report and Drewry’s senior analyst for ports and terminals said: "The renewed appetite for greenfield projects shows improved confidence in the market outlook. However, the ability of CMA Terminals and TIL to secure volume guarantees from CMA CGM and MSC gives these companies an advantage over non-carrier affiliated operators."

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Figure 1：Changes to Drewry's global port capacity forecast

Source: Drewry’s Global Container Terminal Operators Annual Review and Forecast 2022/23

Global supply chain disruption resulted in increased cargo dwell times in 2021 which generated additional storage charges, lifting terminal operators’ revenue growth above that which could be justified on the basis of volume recovery alone.

Port congestion does not appear to have adversely impacted financial performance, despite the widespread decline in productivity levels. The revenue raising mechanisms (i.e., paid-for overtime, storage charges) have so far proven to be sufficient to offset the additional congestion-related operating costs. Operators also cite the continuing cost control measures implemented in response to Covid as having a positive impact on margins.

“Once global supply chain disruption eases, which is now expected in 1H23, there is heightened risk that revenue gains will retreat as dwell times return to pre-pandemic levels,” added Hadland.

Capital expenditure bounced back in 2021, rising 31% YoY, but operators now face the twin challenges of longer lead time for handling equipment and rapidly rising costs. Drewry’s research also identifies that the pace of fund raising has slowed since 2020, with rising interest rates putting a brake on the market. In general, favourable terminal operator financial performance has translated into robust balance sheets. With the exception of COSCO Ports and ICTSI, net debt fell, leading to a reduction in net gearing by 8.5 percentage points to 54.7%.

Looking back at 2021, the number of companies that qualified as GTOs fell from 21 to 20, with K Line dropping out of the rankings following the sale of its US operations in 4Q20. Growth in equity-adjusted throughput for the remaining 20 companies classified by Drewry as GTOs was 7.0%, marginally higher than the 6.8% growth in global port handling recorded in 2021. The leading operators handled over 48% of the global port volumes on an equity-adjusted basis, stable on a like-for-like basis vs. 2020.

APM Terminals reported the largest absolute increase in equity-adjusted volumes, with volumes up 4.7 mteu (10.3%) YoY.

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Figure 2：Leading global/international terminal operators, equity-adjusted throughput, 2021

Source: Drewry’s Global Container Terminal Operators Annual Review and Forecast 2022/23

来源：Drewry德路里