上海国际海事信息与文献网

来源：Hellenic Shipping News 2023-08-05

翻译：国际海事信息网 赵扬捷 张运鸿

        航运集团 A.P. 穆勒-马士基（A.P. Moller-Maersk）周五警告说，受经济增长乏力和客户减少库存的影响，今年全球集装箱海运需求将大幅下降。

        该公司是全球最大的集装箱承运商之一，拥有约 17% 的市场份额。此前，该公司曾预测降幅不会超过 2.5%。

        马士基为沃尔玛（NYSE:WMT）、耐克（NYSE:NKE）和联合利华（NYSE:UL）等零售商和消费企业运输货物，被视为全球经济和企业健康状况的晴雨表。

        首席执行官文森特·克拉克（Vincent Clerc）表示，他认为没有迹象表明抑制全球贸易活动的去库存化会在今年结束。

        "我们曾预计客户会在今年年中左右减少库存，但到目前为止，我们还没有看到这种迹象。这种情况可能会在明年年初出现。

        他称："因此，我们预期的下半年销量上升并未出现。

        他预计，美国的库存减少时间将比其他地区更长。

        马士基去年的盈利创下了历史新高，原因是强劲的消费需求和与大流行病有关的港口堵塞造成了高运费率。但在全球经济放缓的大背景下，今年的运费率出现了下滑。

        更令该行业雪上加霜的是，在大流行病期间订购的数百艘新集装箱船已于今年开始陆续投放市场。

        克拉克说："大部分订单仍在船厂中，因此我们面前还有很长的路要走。“

        他说，该行业在处理新增运力方面一直很有节制，到目前为止，这避免了运费的大幅下跌。

        他说："这种情况是否会继续下去，只有时间才能证明。我们需要在未来 一年半内适应新的市场形势"。

        该公司称，4 月至 6 月间装船的集装箱数量比去年同期下降了 6%，而平均运费则下降了一半。

        马士基周五公布的第二季度盈利降幅略低于预期，并收窄了全年盈利预期。

        本季度未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）从去年同期的 103 亿美元降至 29.1 亿美元，高于 Refinitiv 民意调查中分析师预期的 24.1 亿美元。收入下降了 40%，为 130 亿美元。

        该公司目前预计基本息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为 95 亿至 110 亿美元，而之前的预测为 80 亿至 110 亿美元。

        （本文版权归国际海事信息网所有，图片版权归原作者，转载请注明出处。）

Maersk warns of slower demand for container shipping

Shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk warned on Friday of a steeper decline in global demand for shipping containers by sea this year, prompted by muted economic growth and customers reducing inventories.

The company, one of the world’s biggest container shippers with a market share of around 17%, said it expects container volumes to fall by as much as 4%. It had previously forecast a decline of no more than 2.5%.

Maersk transports goods for retailers and consumer companies such as Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Nike (NYSE:NKE) and Unilever (NYSE:UL), and is seen as a barometer for global economic and corporate health.

CEO Vincent Clerc said he saw no sign that the destocking which has curbed global trade activity would end this year.

“We had expected customers to draw down inventories around the middle of the year, but so far we see no signs of that happening. It may happen at the beginning of next year,” Clerc said at a media briefing.

“Consequently, the uptick in volumes we had expected in the second half of the year has not occurred,” he said.

He predicted that the drawdown of inventories would take longer in the U.S. than in other regions.

Maersk posted record earnings last year due to high freight rates caused by strong consumer demand and pandemic-related logjams at ports. But freight rates have tumbled this year amid a global economic slowdown.

To make things worse for the industry, a wave of hundreds of new container vessels ordered during the pandemic has started to come to market this year.

“Most of the orders are still in the shipyard, so we have a long haul in front of us,” said Clerc.

The industry has been disciplined in handling the new capacity, which has so far prevented a larger plunge in freight rates, he said.

“Whether that will continue, only time will tell,” he said. “We will need to adapt to the new market situation over the next 18 months.”

The company said the number of containers it loaded onto ships between April and June fell by 6% from a year earlier, while average freight rates halved.

Maersk on Friday posted a slightly smaller than expected drop in second-quarter earnings and narrowed its profit forecast for the year.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell to $2.91 billion in the quarter from $10.3 billion a year earlier, beating analysts’ expectations of $2.41 billion in a Refinitiv poll. Revenues fell 40% to $13.0 billion.

It now expects underlying EBITDA of between $9.5 billion and $11 billion, against previous predictions of between $8 billion and $11 billion.