上海国际海事信息与文献网

翻译：国际海事信息网 黄子倩 张运鸿

 

        全球知名航运咨询机构德路里（Drewry）的最新报告显示，随着海上工作的吸引力下降，近期全球海员的用工缺口可能会扩大。

 

        德路里预测，虽然近期受疫情影响，很多船舶临时闲置，但全球海上职位的缺口仍有2%。

 

        一旦商船复工，用工缺口又会暴露出来，这表明与人们认为市场前途不甚明朗的2019年相比，今年的人才供应情况更加紧张。

 

        尽管船队扩张放缓，但海上人才需求可能会加速，这主要是由于人们期望的雇佣惯例（employment practices）发生了改变，假期（leave periods）延长，值班时间（tours of duty）减短，继而会影响到人力/泊位的比例（man-berth ratios）。

 

        同时，人员的净供应（net supply）近些年逐渐放缓，无法满足不断增长的人才需求，导致商船人力缺口扩大。

 

        德路里高级人力分析师瑞特·哈里斯（Rhett Harris）表示：“岸上岗位竞争力的增加，海上生活带来的心理健康问题使得海员工作的吸引力大打折扣，这些都导致海员这一职业不再具有吸引力。”

 

        “新冠疫情期间，海员滞留海上，被迫长期在岗的故事屡见报端，给海员这个职业的名声又带来重重一击。”

 

        由于疫情影响，航运业预期收入惨淡，各大船东都面临着削减成本带来的压力。日趋扩大的人才缺口给海员薪酬问题也带来了压力。德路里预计2020年全行业人力成本支出总体会处于低水平，但未来仍会回升。

 

        德路里表示，一些特殊岗位亟需技术和经验，人才供应更紧张。预计航运业会招聘更多来自低人力成本的国家的海员，可能会使得膨胀的人力成本压力更大。

 

        哈里斯总结道：“过去几年航运市场人员留存率（retention rates）较好，就业市场总体上比较稳定。然而，船舶运营商需要对海员的就业趋势以及海上工作吸引力衰退一事保持敏感。海员短期内不能被雇佣，也没法接受培训，获得工作所需的经验。”

 

       （本文版权归国际海事信息网所有，图片版权归原作者，转载请注明出处。）

 

Drewry: A career at sea ever less attractive

 

The current officer shortfall to crew the global merchant fleet is forecast to widen amid reduced attractiveness of a career at sea, according to the latest report from the global shipping consultancy Drewry.

 

The consultancy estimates that there is a global officer shortage equating to around 2% of overall demand, though presently this is masked by the temporary idling of vessels due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

However, once the merchant fleet is fully reactivated this shortfall is expected to re-emerge and represent a tightening of supply conditions compared to 2019 when the market was estimated to be in broad balance.

 

Looking ahead, despite moderating fleet growth, demand for officers is expected to accelerate due to a revision in anticipated employment practices to extend leave periods and reduce tours of duty, with the resultant impact on man-berth ratios.

 

Meanwhile, net supply of officers has been slowing in recent years and is not expected to keep pace with rising demand, leading to a widening in the overall shortfall relative to merchant shipping’s requirements.

 

“Seafaring is no longer the attractive occupation it once was as competition from shore-based roles intensifies and the lifestyle with its associated mental health challenges becomes less appealing,” said Drewry’s senior manning analyst Rhett Harris. 

 

“The Covid-19 outbreak has dealt a further blow to the occupation’s reputation with high profile news stories of stranded crews and enforced longer tours of duty.”

 

The widening officer shortage is expected to put upward pressure on seafarer remuneration just when shipowners will be under pressure to trim costs in light of weak anticipated earnings. Drewry estimates that overall manning costs have flatlined in 2020 but are set to pick up over the next few years.

 

Skills and experience for specialist roles remain in demand and are in even tighter supply, Drewry said, adding that it expects the demand for seafarers from traditional low-cost supply nationalities to rise, further adding to inflationary manning cost pressures.

 

“The past few years have seen good industry retention rates and a generally settled employment market. However, ship operators need to beware of officer availability trends and the deteriorating attractiveness of a career at sea. Officers cannot be recruited and trained to gain the experience required in a short period of time,” concluded Harris.